Monday, June 29, 2009

Is a new trend setting up in Natural gas?

Natural Gas is holding on support and appears ready to move higher.
Crude oil found a bottom in December 2008 and started moving higher in March of this year. Since the December bottom, crude has nearly doubled. We've seen no such move in Natural Gas. I think the move is overdue and we can participate with UNG.

UNG has been consolidating for nearly two months. During that time it has formed two higher lows and is now trading in a fairly tight range between $14 and $16. We could wait for a breakout above $16 and ride it as a momentum play or start a position at support with a tight stop to control the downside. I prefer buying support and own it at $14.38.

Update - That one didn't work out so well. I was stopped out when it closed below $14. That is why I buy at support. When I'm wrong, I get out quickly with minimal damage.


UNG daily chart

click chart to enlarge

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Where is the market now?

The US markets entered a cautionary Yellow Flag period on June 12th, 2009.
Markets are less likely to rise while under a Yellow flag.

It last entered a Green Flag, buy period on March 23, 2009.
Current Signal

Click chart to enlarge