Monday, August 31, 2009

A New Trend Following Exchange Traded Fund

January 05, 2011


Cambria Global Tactical ETF (GTAA) is a new actively managed ETF. It started trading about two ago.

The fund is managed by Mebane Faber and Eric Richardson from Cambria Investment Management. authors of the book The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets, which outlines the trend-following strategy employed by the new fund.

In a nutshell the fund attempts to be invested in things going up and to limit losses by selling if they fall below a ten month moving average.

Investment allocation targets are
31% to equities including domestic, foreign and emerging markets, 30% to fixed income, 15% in REITs, 14% in commodities 10% in currencies. As a fund of funds, it will build each part of the portfolio using exchange-traded products; mostly ETFs, but also including ETNs and closed-end funds. The expense ratio is 1.35%.

I lile the Managers. I like the concept and I like the asset mix.

Click here for current chart






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August 11, 2010


Is the inflation story starting to show itself in commodities? Yes, I believe it is.



DBA, the PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund and DBB the Powershares DB Base Metals fund are showing signs of heading higher, and based on where these commodities traded before the worlds economies collapsed, they could move significantly higher.

Click DBA for the Agriculture chart and Click DBB for the Metals chart

If you want higher risk/reward, you can go 2X leveraged with DAG for Agriculture and BDD for metals.


October 14, 2009 - It is time to Short the 30 year Treasury


Long term rates couldn't stay low forever. It is time to short the 20 and 30 Year Treasury.

I'll be using TMV, the Direxion Daily 30-Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares.

TBT,the UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ProShares should also be considered.

These ETFs move inverse to the respective treasury, so buying either TMV or TBT gets you short.

If you aren't familiar with leveraged ETFs, you should take time to understand how they work before taking a position. They are not meant to be Buy and Hold investments, although I do expect to be holding TMV for a while.

Click TMV for a current chart
Click TBT for a current chart




August 31,2009
It looks like Natural Gas Trusts are putting in a Bottom

SJT
is putting in a bottom. We now have higher lows and higher highs, and a S/R retest.

Click here for a current chart



And CRT is continuing along an uptrend line
Click here for current chart



HGT looks ready to pop out of a four month base.
Click here for current chart

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Why was the Up-Tick Rule dropped?

I believe the Up-Tick rule was dropped to allow Computerized High-Speed trading programs to trade equally Long and Short. I can come to no other conclusion.

The rule had worked for nearly 70 years. I heard of no one asking that it be removed. As a trader, I can say without hesitation, it did help prevent unchecked shorting of stocks for the purpose of driving shares lowers. Small subsets of the market began crashing within days of the rule being dropped, and the SEC is still dragging their feet to reinstate it.

And while we're on the subject, what happened to the Trading Curbs implemented to restrict computerized trading? Automated trading was said to have increased volatility, panic selling and additional losses during more recent market crashes. They wisely implemented trading Curbs to stop computerized trading from destroying the markets. But you guessed it, the trading curbs were also dropped. Are they now saying the very rules they put in place just a few years ago are no longer needed?

The recent news about Flash Orders, High-Speed trading and that the stolen Goldman Sachs trading software could be used to manipulate markets tied all the loose ends together. For their trading programs to work efficiently, they needed the rules removed, so the rules were removed. The SEC chose to remove the very safeguards designed to protect the investing public, pension plans and 401ks in order to benefit Wall Street's most elite traders. They now callously look the other way as the biggest trading firms strip millions from the markets, mutual funds and retirement plans every day.

These are two of 100s of examples showing the attack on your investments. When you review these charts keep in mind this happened a full year before the general market sell off.

Click on chart for a better view



Click chart for a better view



The SEC is requesting public comments concerning the Up-Tick rule. Please voice your opinion here: Submit a Comment

The vast majority of comments strongly support rule reinstatement. Read comments

Congressman Gary Ackerman is also pushing the SEC to reinstate the rule. Read his letter


From wikipeda;

The uptick rule generally prohibits short selling of securities except on an uptick. The rule was defined by U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) which summarized it: "Rule 10a-1(a)(1) provided that, subject to certain exceptions, a listed security may be sold short (A) at a price above the price at which the immediately preceding sale was effected (plus tick), or (B) at the last sale price if it is higher than the last different price (zero-plus tick). Short sales were not permitted on minus ticks or zero-minus ticks, subject to narrow exceptions."[1]

The rule went into effect in 1938 and was removed when Rule 201 Regulation SHO became effective in 2007.

In 1978, the purpose of the uptick rule was described in a standard text "To correct inequities that occurred on Stock Exchanges prior to 1934, the SEC implemented Rule 10a-1 and 10a-2. It was not unusual in those days to discover groups of speculators pooling their capital and selling short for the sole purpose of driving down the stock price of a particular security to a level where the stockholders would panic and unload their fully owned shares. This, in turn, caused even greater declines in value.

"In 2004, the Commission initiated a year-long pilot that eliminated short sale price test restrictions from approximately one-third of the largest stocks. The purpose of the pilot was to study how the removal of such short sale price test restrictions impacted the market for those subject securities.

Short sale data was made publicly available during this pilot to allow the public and Commission staff to study the effects of eliminating short sale price test restrictions. Third-party researchers analyzed the publicly available data and presented their findings in a public Roundtable discussion in September 2006. The Commission staff also studied the pilot data extensively and made its findings available in draft form in September 2006, and final form in February 2007.

Elimination of the uptick rule

The SEC eliminated the uptick rule on July 6, 2007.[9] The SEC concluded from the study cited above: "The general consensus from these analyses and the roundtable was that the Commission should remove price test restrictions because they modestly reduce liquidity and do not appear necessary to prevent manipulation. In addition, the empirical evidence did not provide strong support for extending a price test to either small or thinly-traded securities not currently subject to a price test."[6]

Commenting on the scrapping of the uptick rule, The Economist reported that "short-sellers argue [it] was largely symbolic, and it remains in place at only a few of the world's big stock exchanges."[10]


Calls for reinstatement

On August 27, 2007, the New York Times published an article on Muriel Siebert, former state banking superintendent of New York, "Wall Street veteran and financial sage", and, in 1967, the first woman to become a member of the New York Stock Exchange. In this article she expressed severe concerns about market volatility: “We’ve never seen volatility like this. We’re watching history being made.” Siebert pointed to the uptick rule, saying, “The S.E.C. took away the short-sale rule and when the markets were falling, institutional investors just pounded stocks because they didn’t need an uptick."[11]

On March 28, 2008 Jim Cramer of CNBC offered the opinion that the absence of the uptick rule harms the stock market today. He claimed that reintroducing the uptick rule would help stabilize the banking sector.[12]

On July 3, 2008 Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, an adviser on mergers and acquisitions, said short-selling was at record levels and asked the SEC to take urgent action and reinstate the 70-year-old uptick rule.[13] On November 20, 2008, they renewed their call stating "Decisive action cannot await ... a new S.E.C. Chairman. ... There is no tomorrow. The failure to reinstate the Uptick Rule is not acceptable." [14]

On July 16, 2008, Congressman Gary Ackerman (D-NY), Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) and Congressman Mike Capuano (D-MA) introduced H.R. 6517, "A bill to require the Securities and Exchange Commission to reinstate the uptick rule on short sales of securities."[15]

On September 18, 2008, presidential candidate and Senator John McCain (R-AZ) said that the SEC allowed short-selling to turn "our markets into a casino." McCain criticized the SEC and its Chairman for eliminating the uptick rule.[16]

On October 6, 2008, Erik Sirri, director of the Securities and Exchange Commission's Division of Trading and Markets, said that the SEC is considering bringing back the uptick rule, stating, "It's something we have talked about and it may be something that we in fact do."[17]

On October 17, 2008, the New York Stock Exchange reported a survey with 85% of its members being in favor of reinstating the uptick rule with the dominant reason to "help instill market confidence".[18]

On November 18, 2008, the Wall Street Journal published an opinion editorial by Robert Pozen and Yaneer Bar-Yam describing an analysis of the difference between regulated and unregulated stocks during the SEC pilot program. By using an analysis they claimed to be more comprehensive than the SEC's original study, they showed that unregulated stocks have lower returns, with a difference that is both statistically and economically significant. They also reported that twice as many stocks had greater than 40% drops in corresponding 12 month periods before and after the repeal.[19] [20]

On January 20, 2009, Ackerman received a letter from Chairman Cox written the day he left the SEC – in which Cox said he supports the reinstatement of an uptick rule. the letter reads “I have been interested in proposing an updated uptick rule. However, as you know, the SEC is a commission of five members. Throughout 2008 there was not a majority interested in reconsidering the 2007 decision to repeal the uptick rule, or in proposing some modernized variant of it. I sincerely hope that the commission, in the year ahead, continues to reassess this issue in light of the extraordinary market events of the last several months, with a view to implementing a modernized version of the uptick rule.”[21]

On February 25, 2009, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee stated he favored the SEC to examine the restoration of the uptick-rule.[22]

On March 10, 2009, the SEC and Congressman Barney Frank (D-MA), Chairman of the Financial Services Committee announced plans to restore the uptick rule. Frank said he was hopeful that it would be restored within a month.[23][24]


Barney Frank, Ben Bernanke and the others listed above are some pretty powerful people wanting change; why can't they get it?





Monday, August 3, 2009

Time to Buy a Trucker

JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)
Looks like a buy here.

Click here for a current chart

Sunday, August 2, 2009

It is time to Buy Commodities

It looks like the Dow Jones AIG Commodity Total Return Index is putting in a rounded bottom.

I'll be going long DJP, a diversified commodity ETN.

Click here for a current chart

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Las Vegas Sands going long

Casino stocks are heating up.

Of the group, I like LVS as a long. Once in I'll trail a stop.

Click here for a current chart

Saturday, July 25, 2009

Monday, June 29, 2009

Is a new trend setting up in Natural gas?

Natural Gas is holding on support and appears ready to move higher.
Crude oil found a bottom in December 2008 and started moving higher in March of this year. Since the December bottom, crude has nearly doubled. We've seen no such move in Natural Gas. I think the move is overdue and we can participate with UNG.

UNG has been consolidating for nearly two months. During that time it has formed two higher lows and is now trading in a fairly tight range between $14 and $16. We could wait for a breakout above $16 and ride it as a momentum play or start a position at support with a tight stop to control the downside. I prefer buying support and own it at $14.38.

Update - That one didn't work out so well. I was stopped out when it closed below $14. That is why I buy at support. When I'm wrong, I get out quickly with minimal damage.


UNG daily chart

click chart to enlarge